Sometimes I have weird fantasies about a post apocalyptic world where factories burned down and people have to live with the tech that’s available. No network, just off site solar power or generators, only local devices. I think it’s interesting to think about how far we could get with this.
Does anyone have recommendations for novels, movies or video games with that topic?
Not exactly what you're describing, but https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Second_After kinda fits the vibe. Warning: it's really depressing, but a good read if you're in the right head space for it.
Pump 6 and Other Stories has a few in that vein, sort of. Eg there are no petrol engines, instead compression springs, treadle operated computers, etc. There are some pretty grim stories in there, some may find them distasteful.
Chiming in to second this, Pump Six and Other Stories left me with a deep, deep sense of dread after I finished reading it. Highly recommended, such an underrated collection.
This is not about information but about capital.
Even if we had free access to the weights of the best models in the world: who would be able to run them?
Technology is deflationary. I am holding in my hand a device that would have been a supercomputer 30 years ago. It costed me a couple of hundreds of dollars.
These models and the hardware they are running on will get even more efficient. We are nowhere near the physical limits of what we can achieve.
Not anymore! Well, if you're like Elon and already taking down the bottle of Cuatro Comas from the high shelf, the economies of scale will continue to work in your favor.
But one of the really neat things about AI is that there is no limit in sight to the scaling incentive. More compute will always get you more: more training, more inference, more parameters, more capacity to build more and better models, more spare capacity to run the slop your models have already built to generate the slop that will succeed it. Back in the dot-com days, or even the "big data" days, you wanted to scale up rapidly but there was a limit: there were only so many customers and they could only produce so much data you could only ingest so fast. In the late 90s, one of the world's most trafficked sites, ftp.cdrom.com, ran on a (single!) dual-processor Pentium Pro system. That was just serving files, and there was certainly room for more CPU oomph to provide more sophisticated services to a huge customer base. But once those customers were served, more compute, storage, and network capacity didn't buy you enough to justify the capex. That is emphatically not the case with AI, and so the incentives for the AI companies are to buy as much compute as they possibly can. What this means in practicing is pre-purchasing capacity at the semiconductor fabs to manufacture chips exclusively for you, and there's only so much of that capacity in the world. Trillion-dollar companies can easily outbid the entire consumer market, and so the incentives for the fabs are now to sell to AI companies at the expense of the consumer market. That's why you're seeing memory prices go through the roof. Modularized RAM for end-user PC builds will soon go the way of the CRT: it will cease to exist as a market product, it won't be manufactured anywhere by anyone. GPUs, CPUs, and storage will soon follow. The only devices end users will be permitted to purchase are all-in-one integrated devices, with CPU, RAM, GPU, storage, and networking either integrated in-chip or soldered on, and they will have just enough capacity to connect to the cloud services the user wants most to use. Most likely, you will be permitted a subscription to such a device, with automatic hardware upgrades at periodic intervals supplied by the manufacturer. If your subscription lapses the device bricks itself. Almost certainly, the OS will be locked down, with no end-user option to install a different one or even run unapproved software.
If reasonably powerful computer hardware for end users exists in this future, it will be available from a single company: Apple. Only they have the leverage to prevent ~100% of manufacturing capacity from going to high-roller, big-tech firms.
> Trillion-dollar companies can easily outbid the entire consumer market
I don't think this is true. I think prices are rising at the consumer and prosumer level because that's what's required for the mass market to collectively outbid the handful of trillion-dollar companies, at least for the limited share of production they can sustainably demand. This process can continue pretty much indefinitely.
> But one of the really neat things about AI is that there is no limit in sight to the scaling incentive.
How you can be so confident? I can imagine there is some limit and with each scaling iteration gain you achieved will decrease so that further iterations would be more and more look pointless
I'm sure a limit will come around eventually. But plans are afoot to build city-sized data centers, and even then that's not enough to sate the AI superscalers' ambitions, hence Elon's talk about putting data centers in space. This is a level of compute scaling unheard of in our lifetime, and we're still a long, long way off from AGI. So while the juice may theoretically not be worth the squeeze at some point, with the current capacity we have there is no end within sight to the incentive to build more. It will take a number of years at least, and who knows how much environmental/economic destruction, before the dropoff in return on capex begins in earnest.
Well it would be anyone that has access to a datacenter to run them. Which is a ton of companies. And those companies will rent out access to those models. And if they do something stupid to screw over consumers, well the whole point is that there would be a bunch of companies that you could use instead.
If that’s true, then it will be even cheaper to provide them as a subscription. Following your logic, every company would be running their own data centers instead of using cloud providers.
This will not happen. None of the existing apps people use daily on their phones have any incentive to support this. Social media wants the people to doomscroll, shopping apps and booking sites want to use their own dark patterns to make people believe they get a special discount if they buy _now_ and everything else just wants users to see the ads. Why on earth would they offer convenient hooks for AI chatbots?
It's even more fascinatingly dumb to have this discussion like 2 or so years after every major platform decided to kill any notion of 3rd party clients they used to support.
Yes, in an ideal world, that'd be great for both humans and LLMs, but we are about as far from that ideal world as we could be. You can't even do some of the "advanced actions" as a human with human-level reflexes without encountering a captcha, but sure, all of a sudden, everyone will just decide to make their bread and butter that is data easier to explore via an LLM.
Why on earth would they offer convenient hooks for AI chatbots?
Competition. If I ask my OS-level AI assistant to find a social media reel about a elephant dancing, the social media app that exposes a set of APIs for an AI agent might get used more.
Watch how fast Meta adds this if a new hot shot social media app succeeds by designing for AI agents controlled by users.
>Competition. If I ask my OS-level AI assistant to find a social media reel about a elephant dancing, the social media app that exposes a set of APIs for an AI agent might get used more.
This is the exact opposite of what will happen (and in fact what has happened). Reddit is suing Perplexity right now for scraping.
Meta will not serve content to some other app for free - for what benefit? They will not see advertising data.
Not really. For the most part, accessibility APIs provide programmatic interfaces to user interfaces, application APIs provide semantically meaningful interfaces to application functionality.
A closer analogue would be AppleScript, or rather, the underlying Apple Event and Open Scripting Architecture functionality supplied by the OS to support AppleScript, that allowed applications to expose these interfaces along with metadata documenting them, and for external tools to record manually performed tasks across applications as programs expressed in terms of these interfaces to make them easier to use (this last bit, while not strictly required, is convenient, and especially useful for less technical users).
If you're familiar with VBA in Microsoft Office applications, sort of like that, except with support provided by OS APIs that could be used by any application that chose to implement scripting support, official guidance from Apple suggesting that all well-designed applications should be scriptable and recordable, and application design patterns and frameworks designed with scriptability and recordability in mind.
Note that I use the past tense here, despite AppleScript still being available in macOS, because it is not well-supported by modern applications.
You're absolutely right! "Why Does This Matter?" was a dead giveaway that this article was not written by a human — it was written by a large language model.
But really: "Why does this matter?" When looking at an article like this, I rarely read the text. This is just fluff no matter if AI-generated or hand written. The info is "there's a LEGO set of that ASML machine" and the picture of that set. That's all I want to know before clicking the back button.
But there is interesting information in lots of the comments. Like the quote from Ternus about Apple Maps in one of the comments. This gives relevant insight of how he thinks and how he might handle problems when he takes over.
If it's interesting to note that there are mostly nuanced takes and positive vibes in the thread, and an otherwise low-value meta comment is deemed to be a worthy top comment for saying so, then I suggest an auto-generated AI summarization comment pinned to every long HN thread. This will surely save everyone the trouble of doing so...
(I am not claiming the top comment is AI generated, only that an AI generated summarization of the thread can function just as well in its stead, despite the occasional inaccuracies)
How many of these threat vectors are just theoretical? Don’t use skills from random sources (just like don’t execute files from unknown sources). Don’t paste from untrusted sites (don’t click links on untrusted sites). Maybe there are fake documentation sites that the agent will search and have a prompt injected - but I haven’t heard of a single case where that happened. For now, the benefits outweigh the risk so much that I am willing to take it - and I think I have an almost complete knowledge of all the attack vectors.
Systems have been caught out that review pull requests, that’s a simple and clear one. The more obvious to me for most people is anything you do that interacts with your email without an explicit approve list of emails to read.
Yes, but none of this applies to the local codex agent that runs when I tell it to and has access to my computer. Like: „scan this folder of PDFs and create an excel file with all expenses. Then enter them into my tax software.“ This needs access to very sensitive data and involves a quite complex handling of data. But the only attack vector I see is someone injecting prompts into my invoice files.
Which applies if you were to do this to invoices submitted to you, rather than ones you created, or if you have any way of user info getting into your invoices.
i think you lack creativity. you could create a site that targets a very narrow niche, say an upper income school district. build some credibility, get highly ranked on google due to niche. post lunch menus with hidden embedded text.
Because it’s hooked up to a microphone in your kitchen & your kid is arguing with you about what lunch they want & they say “Hey [agent], what day is pizza day at [school]?”
Services revenue is mostly just 30% from App Store Sales. This means every time a user clicks a pro account for ChatGPT or Claude on their phone, Apple makes more money than they could make with a self deployed model.
You're not wrong that they collect a ton of rent off AI apps, rumours a few weeks back claimed $900m in fees last year with 75% of that just from OpenAI.
But services revenue is:
- their 36% share of Google Ads for being default search engine, about $21 billion/year of pure profit
- their IAP fees, court testimony reveals 75% profit margin
- their first-party subscriptions, there's an antitrust about iCloud that alleges 52% of iPhone users are on paid plans and that the profit margins are 80-ish percent!
I wrote my own note sharing app using free Claude. It's self-hosted, allows for non-simultaneous editing by multiple users (uses locks), it has no passwords on users, it shows all notes in a list. Very simple app, over all. It's one Go file and one HTML file. I like it, it's exactly what I want for sharing notes like shopping and todo lists with my partner.
The AI wouldn't have been able to do it by itself, but I wouldn't have been arsed to do it alone either.
Current, a brand-new handcoded RSS reader for i(Pad)OS/macOS is one of the best apps I've ever used. Seriously. I gladly purchased it and use it every day now (with Feedbin as the backend).
Nobody said that. But as you say, it's just a tool. Tools need to be used correctly. If tools are unintuitive, maybe that's due to the nature of the tool or due to a flaw in it's design. But either way, you as the user need to work around that if you want to get the maximum use out of the tool.
Does anyone have recommendations for novels, movies or video games with that topic?
reply