One thing I don’t understand is that many people who buy houses in Phoenix believe in Global Warming getting worse in the short term (source: lived in Phoenix for a year, considered buying a house there, and spoke with many folks who just moved or were about to move).

Have you read "The Water Knife" by Paolo Bacigalupi? Mostly set in Phoenix when the water has run out.

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23209924-the-water-knife

Hot and dry is not that bad from a global warming standpoint. Evaporative cooling is very effective and efficient so it's actually less energy intensive heating in colder locations. The plentiful amount of space and days of sun makes solar energy very practical. The nights can get pretty cold so it means that certain evening hours are actually very comfortable.

Except for drought problems.

Tail end of the graph: looks like the graph approaching 2006.