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The problem is even when you discount future earnings (accounting for this growth rate), GOOG is still overpriced. So then you start trying to justify the value on other lofty factors which are more difficult to quantify. This practice is totally deja vu from 2000...


I thought Google was overpriced when it was $170 a share, and I shorted it. Lost me quite a bit of money. I was wrong, it wasn't overpriced then. It is overpriced now, but I've stopped speculating.


As traders say (I think Keynes said it first):

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"




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